Gasoline is one of the most widely used fuels in the United States, powering millions of vehicles and other machines every day. The availability and price of gasoline affect the economy, the environment, and national security. Therefore, it is important to monitor the supply and demand of gasoline in the country, as well as the factors that influence them.
One of the main sources of information on US gasoline supply is the weekly report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which tracks the production, imports, exports, consumption, and inventories of gasoline and other petroleum products. According to the EIA, US gasoline stockpiles are defined as “the total quantity of gasoline held in storage at refineries, in pipelines, at bulk terminals that can store at least 50,000 barrels of gasoline or blending components, and in barges and tankers when in transit along coastal waterways” 1.
Recent Trends
According to the latest EIA report, US gasoline stockpiles decreased by 1.9 million barrels in the week ending September 1, 2023, to 227.7 million barrels 2. This was the fourth consecutive weekly decline, as demand for gasoline remained high amid the summer driving season and the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and mpox outbreak. The four-week average gasoline demand was 9.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending September 1, 2023, up by 7.4% from the same period last year 2.
The decrease in gasoline stockpiles was also driven by lower production and imports of gasoline. US gasoline production averaged 10.1 million bpd in the week ending September 1, 2023, down by 0.4% from the previous week and by 1.6% from the same week last year 2. US gasoline imports averaged 0.8 million bpd in the week ending September 1, 2023, down by 18.4% from the previous week and by 20% from the same week last year 2.
The decline in gasoline stockpiles was partially offset by lower exports of gasoline. US gasoline exports averaged 0.7 million bpd in the week ending September 1, 2023, down by 12.5% from the previous week and by 22.2% from the same week last year 2.
Historical Trends
The EIA provides historical data on US gasoline stockpiles dating back to January 1990 3. The data show that US gasoline stockpiles have fluctuated over time, reflecting changes in supply and demand conditions, as well as seasonal patterns.
The highest level of US gasoline stockpiles on record was 262.1 million barrels in February 2017 3. This was a result of high production and imports of gasoline amid low demand due to mild winter weather and high prices 4.
The lowest level of US gasoline stockpiles on record was 150.8 million barrels in September 2005 3. This was a result of low production and imports of gasoline amid high demand due to strong economic growth and hurricane disruptions 5.
The average level of US gasoline stockpiles from January 1990 to August 2023 was 216.9 million barrels 3. The average level of US gasoline stockpiles in August 2023 was 230.6 million barrels, which was above the historical average by 6.3% 32.
Implications
The level of US gasoline stockpiles has implications for various aspects of society, such as:
- Gasoline prices: The level of US gasoline stockpiles affects the balance between the supply and demand of gasoline in the market, which influences the price of gasoline at the pump. Generally speaking, higher stockpiles indicate higher supply or lower demand, which puts downward pressure on prices; lower stockpiles indicate lower supply or higher demand, which puts upward pressure on prices. However, other factors such as crude oil prices, refining costs, taxes, regulations, and geopolitics also affect gasoline prices.
- Economic activity: The level of US gasoline stockpiles affects the cost and availability of transportation for consumers and businesses, which influences their spending and investment decisions. Generally speaking, lower stockpiles imply higher prices or lower availability, which reduces consumer spending and business activity; higher stockpiles imply lower prices or higher availability, which increases consumer spending and business activity. However, other factors such as income levels, preferences, technology, and competition also affect economic activity.
- Environmental impact: The level of US gasoline stockpiles affects the amount and type of emissions from burning gasoline in vehicles and other machines, which influences the quality of air and water, as well as the climate. Generally speaking, lower stockpiles imply lower consumption or higher efficiency, which reduces emissions and environmental impact; higher stockpiles imply higher consumption or lower efficiency, which increases emissions and environmental impact. However, other factors such as fuel standards, emission controls, and alternative fuels also affect environmental impact.
- National security: The level of US gasoline stockpiles affects the dependence and vulnerability of the United States on foreign sources of gasoline and crude oil, which influences the risk of supply disruptions and conflicts. Generally speaking, lower stockpiles imply higher dependence or vulnerability, which increases the risk of supply disruptions and conflicts; higher stockpiles imply lower dependence or vulnerability, which reduces the risk of supply disruptions and conflicts. However, other factors such as domestic production, diversification, diplomacy, and defense also affect national security.
Conclusion
US gasoline stockpiles are an important indicator of the supply and demand of gasoline in the country, as well as the factors that influence them. The level of US gasoline stockpiles has implications for various aspects of society, such as gasoline prices, economic activity, environmental impact, and national security. Therefore, it is important to monitor the trends and changes in US gasoline stockpiles, as well as the underlying causes and consequences.
